Circular working landscapes of the future
In 2050 our economy will be completely circular. And it should. The current extractive economy depletes the earth’s resources, pollutes our atmosphere and delivers prosperity for fewer and fewer people. The necessity for a circular economy is felt more and more. But can we imagine what a circular economy looks like in 2050? How do we define work in a circular economy in 2050 and what kind of physical conditions are needed to facilitate a circular economy? The future is uncertain. With the use of scenarios, we can give direction to the exploration of the above questions. For the Design Challenge Circular Working Landscapes 2050 we developed four complementary scenarios. Based on the scenarios we sketched the possible futures for a location near Schiphol Airport: Hoofddorp. Instead of drafting a blueprint for the area, the scenarios give insight into how to act now about the uncertainty of the future.
Location Hoofddorp
Our focus area was situated between intercity railway tracks and the A4 highway, just Southeast of the new town of Hoofddorp. Schiphol Airport is only a few minutes away from the train stop in the center of the area. Regional connections to the A4 highway and the urban areas of Aalsmeer and Hoofddorp. The larger metropolitan landscapes of the Metropolitan Region of Amsterdam (MRA) are accessible through various recreational routes, like the route of the Amsterdam Waterline.
Beckoning perspectives
The circular economy offers various beckoning perspectives. Raw materials, materials, and products retain their value infinitely. We will never consider anything waste again. In a circular economy, multiple value models will also be commonplace instead of single business models, in which the value of the community and the area will be much more central.
A circular economy will be much less based on fossil raw materials and fuels. Instead, the raw materials will be bio-based. The bio-based industry still requires a lot of innovation in the (re)use of natural raw materials and materials. Large internationally operating companies also seem to be increasingly circularly arranging their business processes. If large companies manage to close their cycles, there will also be room for them in the circular economy of 2050. These perspectives can all be part of a circular economy. However, they all provide a different view of the role of work in the future. They therefore all impose different conditions on work locations. Consider the scale of companies, the infrastructure, and the type of activities that can take place there.
Elements of a Circular Economy
A circular economy consists of several basic elements. We will have to develop these elements to achieve a circular economy in 2050. These elements are:
business models that are multiple, inclusive, and circular; the knowledge of materials, processes, and techniques for a circular and biobased industry; a change in behavior for our daily dealings with things and materials; an economic model that serves the community.
Multiple future-use
To show the coherence between the various appealing perspectives and elements of a circular economy, four scenarios have been outlined. In these scenarios, all four elements are always present, but always have one of the elements as the centre of gravity.
To also show the scenarios in mutual coherence, we have designated a cross-axis system. We show the uncertainties on the axes. In this case, the vertical axis shows the scale on which the circular activities take place: international or regional. This can be prompted, for example, by the importance of proximity. the price of fuel in 2050. As fuel becomes scarcer, proximity becomes a more important aspect and Schiphol’s role will decrease. On the horizontal axis, the emphasis is on manufacturing, technology, and industry versus sharing knowledge, services, and space.
Building blocks
To make the four scenarios conceivable, and internally consistent and to lead to new insights, we have made statements about the following building blocks in each scenario:
hybrid final image
All four scenarios lead to a valuable, high-quality, and circular working landscape that is publicly accessible. The four elements (money, people, goods, and knowledge) always have a meaningful connection. However, the balance between the elements enter within their relationship is difficult to predict.
Fortunately, the location does tell us what is strategically smart. Scale, infrastructure, landscape and existing activities provide starting points for which first steps are smart and which impose few restrictions on future developments. The composite profile above shows the first hybrid circular work landscape in 2050.
Corporate Landscape
The multimodal accessibility makes this a perfect location for international production and logistics. Schiphol is just around the corner, there is direct access to the A4 and the nearby OCAP pipeline ensures a continuous supply of CO2. The CO2 is a circular raw material (CCU) for large-scale circular production. The production and logistics are housed in large boxes that can be flexibly arranged. Together, the boxes form a robust and productive landscape.
Image: Bright x Midjourney
reXgional hub
The area houses all steps in the technical cycle of materials and products: from repair to redistribution. Visitors come to bring items and also buy ‘new’ items. These economic activities require proximity to other companies in the chain and proximity to the region as a service area. The companies are mainly SMEs and family businesses. High-quality ribbons ensure good access to the area for road traffic and cyclists. The ribbons also form the green-blue structure. Entrepreneurs live at or on their company building.
Image: Bright x Midjourney
Oosterwold on steroids
The Haarlemmermeer is an area for pioneers. Intentional communities are formed around high-quality and capital-intensive resources such as robot arms. New guilds of super-specialized professionals are emerging. People live and work in mostly self-sufficient but high-density community buildings in a wet Haarlemmermeer.
Image: Bright x Midjourney
Progress polder
Mainly biobased materials are used for the sustainable renovation of seven million buildings in the Netherlands alone. The massive demand for new applications has led to a biobased knowledge landscape directly connected to the world by Schiphol. In the park-like landscape are R&D facilities and laboratories. The first biobased university in Europe is located near the station. High-quality architecture and facilities should attract knowledge workers.
Image: Bright x Midjourney