South Holland Fifty Fifty

Can we develop spatial scenarios for the future of the province of South Holland based on insights derived from historical changes in land use?

In close collaboration with Vereniging Deltametropool and government planners from the South Holland province we looked back fifty years in time. We analyzed the correlation between specific spatial conditions and changes in land use. Is there a correlation between the proximity of a railway station and high-density urbanization? What transformations in land use occur after certain policies come into place? What patterns of land use change can be seen on different soil types? What type of transformations inform other transformations? To be able to match all the different data sets we divided the whole territory into 500 by 500 meter plots. Then, through a combination of GIS and statistical analyses, we developed a set of so-called correlograms that bring all correlations together in a comprehensive graphic.

The next step was to extrapolate a future scenario for South Holland based on found conditions for land use change that were most normative in the last five decades. According to how many conditions were present at each pixel (of 500 by 500 m) it received a score and a color according to that score. The resulting map showed the scores of all 13.000 pixels. We called this the Business as Usual scenario. The map shows that there is hardly any space left for business as usual. Only a few pixels will be available for transformation in the future.

So if historical conditions no longer apply, what other conditions can we formulate that will inform the possibility of future change in land use? We are currently more aware that we can no longer ignore some urgent challenges related to our environment. Out of other research and explorations, we distilled four spatial challenges: flood protection, soil condition, accessibility, and vicinity. For each of these challenges, we described and prioritized the possible normative conditions. The result is a map for each of the challenges indicating where, based on the specific set of conditions, the transformation of land use would be probable.

By overlaying the places where transformation seems most probable with the current land use map we created four scenarios. Each scenario map shows, with certain set of normative conditions as input. what the transformation environments will be, illustrated by automated and three-dimensional tiles of 500 by 500 meters.

Each scenario is also accompanied by a collage speculating on the possibilities for spatial quality for specific locations indicated in the maps.

The full research can be downloaded through this link: https://staging-kennis-zuid-holland.ability.nl/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/rapport50-50ruimtegebruikdeel2-1.pdf